{"id":5120,"date":"2021-08-03T14:40:16","date_gmt":"2021-08-03T12:40:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dev.m2hycon.de\/aktuelles\/unkategorisiert\/estimation-of-a-customer-specific-offer-acceptance-probability\/"},"modified":"2024-05-15T17:02:19","modified_gmt":"2024-05-15T15:02:19","slug":"estimation-of-a-customer-specific-offer-acceptance-probability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.m2hycon.de\/en\/news\/practice\/estimation-of-a-customer-specific-offer-acceptance-probability\/","title":{"rendered":"Estima\u00adtion of a customer-specific offer accep\u00adtance proba\u00adbi\u00adlity"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"5120\" class=\"elementor elementor-5120 elementor-1399\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-385e5e4 elementor-section-full_width elementor-section-height-min-height red noisy elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-items-middle\" data-id=\"385e5e4\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-no\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-634db11\" data-id=\"634db11\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4ce5340 elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-featured-image elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"4ce5340\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-featured-image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/www.m2hycon.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/m2ycon_blog_annahmewahrscheinlichkeit_1920x960-1024x512.jpg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-4849\" alt srcset=\"https:\/\/www.m2hycon.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/m2ycon_blog_annahmewahrscheinlichkeit_1920x960-1024x512.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.m2hycon.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/m2ycon_blog_annahmewahrscheinlichkeit_1920x960-300x150.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.m2hycon.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/m2ycon_blog_annahmewahrscheinlichkeit_1920x960-768x384.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.m2hycon.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/m2ycon_blog_annahmewahrscheinlichkeit_1920x960-1536x768.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.m2hycon.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/m2ycon_blog_annahmewahrscheinlichkeit_1920x960.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\">\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-f750623 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"f750623\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-dfaead5\" data-id=\"dfaead5\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-87b749a elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-title elementor-page-title elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"87b749a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-title.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h1 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Estima\u00adtion of a customer-specific offer accep\u00adtance proba\u00adbi\u00adlity<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-56a95f1 elementor-widget elementor-widget-post-info\" data-id=\"56a95f1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"post-info.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"elementor-inline-items elementor-icon-list-items elementor-post-info\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-repeater-item-7b67db0 elementor-inline-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text elementor-post-info__item elementor-post-info__item--type-custom\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tVon Bj\u00f6rn Piepen\u00adburg\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-repeater-item-2efc209 elementor-inline-item\" itemprop=\"datePublished\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text elementor-post-info__item elementor-post-info__item--type-date\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<time>August 3, 2021<\/time>\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-repeater-item-84e7708 elementor-inline-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text elementor-post-info__item elementor-post-info__item--type-custom\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.m2hycon.de\/en\/tag\/deep-lattice-network\/\" rel=\"tag\">Deep lattice network<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.m2hycon.de\/en\/tag\/forwarding-agency\/\" rel=\"tag\">Forwar\u00adding agency<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.m2hycon.de\/en\/tag\/logistics\/\" rel=\"tag\">Logistics<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.m2hycon.de\/en\/tag\/price-sensitivities\/\" rel=\"tag\">Price sensi\u00adti\u00advi\u00adties<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.m2hycon.de\/en\/tag\/prices\/\" rel=\"tag\">Prices<\/a>\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-028debe elementor-section-content-middle elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"028debe\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-25495e8\" data-id=\"25495e8\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-339d19a elementor-widget__width-auto elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"339d19a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h4>Share post:<\/h4>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d04a235 elementor-share-buttons--view-icon elementor-share-buttons--skin-minimal elementor-share-buttons--color-custom elementor-widget__width-auto elementor-share-buttons--shape-circle elementor-grid-0 elementor-widget elementor-widget-share-buttons\" data-id=\"d04a235\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"share-buttons.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-grid\" role=\"list\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-grid-item\" role=\"listitem\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-share-btn elementor-share-btn_facebook\" role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-label=\"Share on facebook\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-share-btn__icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i class=\"fab fa-facebook\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-grid-item\" role=\"listitem\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-share-btn elementor-share-btn_twitter\" role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-label=\"Share on twitter\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-share-btn__icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i class=\"fab fa-twitter\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-grid-item\" role=\"listitem\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-share-btn elementor-share-btn_linkedin\" role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-label=\"Share on linkedin\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-share-btn__icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i class=\"fab fa-linkedin\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-grid-item\" role=\"listitem\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-share-btn elementor-share-btn_xing\" role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-label=\"Share on xing\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-share-btn__icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i class=\"fab fa-xing\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-b893a34 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"b893a34\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-d4b47e0\" data-id=\"d4b47e0\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8dd54b3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"8dd54b3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>In this post, a modern approach is presented to derive an indivi\u00addual proba\u00adbi\u00adlity curve for the accep\u00adtance of an offer from histo\u00adrical accepted and rejected transac\u00adtion data, depen\u00adding on diffe\u00adrent charac\u00adte\u00adristics, inclu\u00adding the number of accepted and rejected transac\u00adtions. of the offer price and incl. of features to diffe\u00adren\u00adtiate between custo\u00admers. The proce\u00addure is illus\u00adtrated using an example of the awarding of trans\u00adport contracts by a freight forwarder. I have already described the background to the pricing model and the solution algorithm used in two other posts in this blog.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.m2hycon.de\/en\/news\/practice\/deep-lattice-networks-dln\/\">Deep Lattice Networks (DLN)<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"\/news\/technology-trends\/modern-pricing-in-the-environment-of-revenue-management\/\">  Modern pricing in the revenue manage\u00adment environ\u00adment  <\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e043dbf elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"e043dbf\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Let\u2019s assume you want to send a larger shipment in the form of one or more pallets. You commis\u00adsion a freight forwarder to arrange the order with a suitable trans\u00adport company, which demands a so-called shipper price from you. After conclu\u00adding a contract with you, a forwar\u00adding agent usually contacts a trans\u00adport company by telephone and makes a price proposal for the trans\u00adport, which is usually renego\u00adtiated. The deter\u00admi\u00adna\u00adtion of an indivi\u00addual price taking into account all infor\u00adma\u00adtion about the shipment, the tour and the trans\u00adport company for a proba\u00adbi\u00adlity of accep\u00adtance of the shipment by the trans\u00adport company expected by the forwar\u00adding agent is the content of this article.<\/p>\n<p>The infor\u00adma\u00adtion available on the histo\u00adrical offers consists of 18 charac\u00adte\u00adristics, which are used to describe the acceptance\/rejection target variable:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Trans\u00adpor\u00adta\u00adtion price actually paid<\/li>\n<li>Number of indivi\u00addual shipments on the trans\u00adport (shipments are bundled to improve the utiliza\u00adtion of a truck)<\/li>\n<li>Total distance of the trans\u00adport<\/li>\n<li>Sum of the loading meters (loading meters are a measure of the trans\u00adport volume and describe the load quantity that can be trans\u00adported on one meter of loading area of the trans\u00adporter)<\/li>\n<li>Total weight of the trans\u00adport<\/li>\n<li>Average geocoor\u00addi\u00adnates of the loading and unloa\u00adding points (each consis\u00adting of latitude and longi\u00adtude)<\/li>\n<li>Month of depar\u00adture of the trans\u00adport<\/li>\n<li>Year of depar\u00adture of the trans\u00adport<\/li>\n<li>Weekday of depar\u00adture of the trans\u00adport<\/li>\n<li>Number of working days in the week of depar\u00adture of the trans\u00adport (inclu\u00adding bridging days)<\/li>\n<li>Distance between the depar\u00adture of the trans\u00adport and the next public holiday<\/li>\n<li>Duration of the trans\u00adport (incl. loading and unloa\u00adding times, waiting times and breaks)<\/li>\n<li>Outward or return journey for the trans\u00adport company (are the loading points closer to the branch of the trans\u00adport company or the unloa\u00adding points)<\/li>\n<li>minimum distance from the trans\u00adport company\u2019s branch to a loading or unloa\u00adding point<\/li>\n<li>Loading and unloa\u00adding points in the typical action window of the trans\u00adport company<\/li><\/ul><div><br><\/div><ul>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A deep lattice network was used to estab\u00adlish the functional relati\u00adonship between the charac\u00adte\u00adristics and the target variable and the cross entropy was used as the error function. This not only provides the class assign\u00adment for a combi\u00adna\u00adtion of charac\u00adte\u00adristics, but also a proba\u00adbi\u00adlity for a correct assign\u00adment, which can be inter\u00adpreted as an accep\u00adtance proba\u00adbi\u00adlity.<\/p>\n<p>For the valida\u00adtion of the model and the training results, a standard shipment (green curves) was defined, which leads from an econo\u00admic\u00adally strong region in Germany to another econo\u00admic\u00adally strong region. The distance is around 350 kilome\u00adters. In the follo\u00adwing figures, one charac\u00adte\u00adristic was varied as an example; the price on the <em>x-axis<\/em> is also varied in each diagram in order to expand the accep\u00adtance proba\u00adbi\u00adli\u00adties into proba\u00adbi\u00adlity curves. It should be noted in the diagrams that the influences of the charac\u00adte\u00adristics only apply to the selected example. Other<br>Tour parame\u00adters will lead to other influences.<\/p>\n<p>It can be seen that the increase in shipments on a trans\u00adport has a major influence on the proba\u00adbi\u00adlity of accep\u00adtance. In the case of loading meters, small and large volumes lead to higher trans\u00adport prices. Low weights lead to lower prices; however, above a certain weight there no longer seems to be any influence. The year and month have little influence on the proba\u00adbi\u00adlity of accep\u00adtance. The day of the week shows that Thursday is the most expen\u00adsive and Wednesday the cheapest.<\/p>\n<p>The curves shown can be used to select the appro\u00adpriate trans\u00adport company. They can also be used as a basis for deter\u00admi\u00adning an offer price. Assuming that the trans\u00adport has a suffi\u00adci\u00adently long lead time, a trans\u00adport company can be offered a price with an accep\u00adtance proba\u00adbi\u00adlity of 50% or less. If the deadline for trans\u00adpor\u00adta\u00adtion is approa\u00adching and no trans\u00adport company has yet accepted, the proba\u00adbi\u00adlity of accep\u00adtance must be increased and with it the price. Another reason could be a parti\u00adcu\u00adlarly suitable trans\u00adport company or a parti\u00adcu\u00adlarly reliable company with a good service. The decision for the right trans\u00adport company and the right price can be made by an expert or by artifi\u00adcial intel\u00adli\u00adgence, which we have already successfully tested in a research project funded by the mFund.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cc4e3c4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"cc4e3c4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.m2hycon.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/elementor\/thumbs\/m2hycon_blog_angebotsannahmewahrscheinlichkeit_in_text-q1v3k9ee7nsh27fqm90p4ok9sgtvoo0q96trtot2ec.jpg\" title=\"Sch\u00e4t\u00adzung einer kunden\u00adspe\u00adzi\u00adfi\u00adschen Angebots\u00adan\u00adnah\u00adme\u00adwahr\u00adschein\u00adlich\u00adkeit\" alt=\"Sch\u00e4tzung einer kundenspezifischen Angebotsannahmewahrscheinlichkeit\" loading=\"lazy\">\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d0e0ba9 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"d0e0ba9\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>It can be seen that the increase in shipments on a trans\u00adport has a major influence on the proba\u00adbi\u00adlity of accep\u00adtance. In the case of loading meters, small and large volumes lead to higher trans\u00adport prices. Low weights lead to lower prices; however, above a certain weight there no longer seems to be any influence. The year and month have little influence on the proba\u00adbi\u00adlity of accep\u00adtance. The day of the week shows that Thursday is the most expen\u00adsive and Wednesday the cheapest.<\/p>\n<p>The curves shown can be used to select the appro\u00adpriate trans\u00adport company. They can also be used as a basis for deter\u00admi\u00adning an offer price. Assuming that the trans\u00adport has a suffi\u00adci\u00adently long lead time, a trans\u00adport company can be offered a price with an accep\u00adtance proba\u00adbi\u00adlity of 50% or less. If the deadline for trans\u00adpor\u00adta\u00adtion is approa\u00adching and no trans\u00adport company has yet accepted, the proba\u00adbi\u00adlity of accep\u00adtance must be increased and with it the price. Another reason could be a parti\u00adcu\u00adlarly suitable trans\u00adport company or a parti\u00adcu\u00adlarly reliable company with a good service. The decision for the right trans\u00adport company and the right price can be made by an expert or by artifi\u00adcial intel\u00adli\u00adgence, which we have already successfully tested in a research project funded by the mFund.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-d2d91e0 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"d2d91e0\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-753743c\" data-id=\"753743c\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div 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